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近日,Quill Intelligence的首席执行官兼首席策略师丹妮尔-迪马蒂诺-布斯(Danielle DiMartino Booth) 在2019年CFA协会全球投资者研讨会上表示她并不看好美联储,并称,美联储是地球上效率最低的机构之一。

迪马蒂诺-布斯(DiMartino Booth)的观点来自她为达拉斯联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)担任顾问期间的经历。她在华尔街工作后加入了这家银行。在她职业生涯的开始,她不太清楚中央银行做了什么。“尽管我并不真正理解美联储是什么,”她说,“但我有一种感觉,市场中有一只看不见的手在起作用。”

DiMartino Booth’s perspective is informed by her tenure advising the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, which she joined after working on Wall Street. At the start of her career, she wasn’t quite sure what the central bank did. “Even though I didn’t really understand what the Federal Reserve was,” she said, “I had a sense that there was this invisible hand at work in the markets.”

虽然她看到美联储的影响力正在这些市场发挥作用,但她没有预料到这种影响力会变得多么极端。她说:“在某种程度上,就像我们现在这样,美联储将真正接管我们所说的价格发现。”

While she saw the Fed’s influence playing out in those markets, she did not anticipate how extreme that influence would become. “The Federal Reserve would, at some point — where we are today — come to literally take over what we term price discovery,” she said.

当价格发现机制失灵时,就不可能判断债券市场是否准确反映了公司发行人的财务状况。与此同时,债台高筑。

When the price discovery mechanism fails, it becomes impossible to tell whether bond markets are accurately reflecting the financial health of corporate issuers. Meanwhile, debt has piled up.

她说:“美国的企业债券市场在后危机时代翻了一番。而且,投资级债券市场与不断增加的高风险债券相比相形见绌。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)今年早些时候的一份报告显示,在所有投资级债券发行中,超过一半的债券评级为BBB,如果信用评级被下调,这些债券将失去投资级的地位,成为高收益债券。

“The corporate debt market in America has doubled in a post-crisis world,” she said. And the investment-grade bond market is dwarfed by increasing amounts of high-risk debt. According to a Morgan Stanley report from earlier this year, more than half of all investment-grade bond issues have BBB ratings that would lose their investment-grade status and become high-yield debt in the event of a credit downgrade.

美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)承认,企业债务在增长,高杠杆化的商业领域可能会放大任何经济低迷。DiMartino Booth说:“他似乎是轻描淡写地上了格林斯潘学校。”

Jerome Powell, the chair of the Fed, has acknowledged the growth in corporate debt and how the highly leveraged business sector could amplify any economic downturn. “It seems as if he went to the Greenspan School of Understatement,” DiMartino Booth said.

她还批评了美联储官员在决策时使用失业率的方式。"美联储官员没完没了地谈论失业率接近50年低点," DiMartino Booth称。但这并不是一个真正有效的经济指标。她指出,“具有讽刺意味的是,央行的政策是,他们继续坚守50年来的最低失业率,不愿看任何领先指标。”

She also criticized the way that the unemployment rate is used by Fed officials when making policy decisions. “The people at the Fed talk endlessly about the near 50-year low in the unemployment rate,” DiMartino Booth said. But that isn’t really an effective economic indicator. she said. “The irony of central banking policy is that they continue to hang their hat on the 50-year low in the unemployment rate and refuse to look at any of the leading indicators.”

目前的状况也限制了美联储的行动能力。她表示:“在风险资产价格被高估到今天这种程度的环境下,在收益率曲线倒挂点和衰退开始点之间的距离要短得多。”

Current conditions also limit the Fed’s ability to act. “In an environment in which risky asset prices are overvalued to the extent that they are today, you have a much shorter runway in between the point of yield curve inversion and the onset of recession,” she said.

问题可能来自国内或国际根源。DiMartino Booth 说,“世界正处于一种被称为衰退的状态。现在,我们不谈论它,因为这是不礼貌的。然而,她看到了全球经济放缓和陷入困境的迹象。

And problems could arise from either domestic or international sources. “The world’s in kind of this thing called a recession. Now, we don’t talk about it, because it’s not polite,” DiMartino Booth said. However, she sees signs of slowing and struggling economies across the globe.

她说:“不知何故,从某种程度上说,德国这个第三大出口国成功实现了零增长,这样就不是连续两个季度的GDP负增长了。”“但从那以后,我们从德国看到的一切都表明,他们正在回到负增长的状态。”

“Somehow, some way, Germany — third largest exporting nation — Germany managed to eke out zero percent growth, such that it was not two consecutive quarters of negative GDP,” she said. “But everything we’ve seen out of Germany since then suggests that they’re going back into negative territory.”

在所有这些发展中,鲍威尔处境艰难。“他无能为力,”DiMartino Booth说。“当下一个需要讨论话题是负利率时,你的确没有太多东西可做了。”

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